Pauline Hanson’s party eclipses the Liberals and Nationals in multiple surveys amid leadership turmoil and policy rifts.
One Nation Rises Amid Coalition Turmoil, Shaping Australia’s Political Future:
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has hit unprecedented polling highs, with primary support reaching 22-25% in recent national surveys, often tying or surpassing the fractured Coalition’s vote. This surge comes as the Liberal-National Coalition implodes for the second time in eight months, plagued by leadership battles and internal conflicts over responses to the Bondi terror attack. Meanwhile, voters have broadly endorsed Labor’s handling of the December 2025 tragedy, bolstering Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s position despite his government’s challenges. With the next federal election due by early 2028, this shift could reshape Australia’s political landscape, potentially fragmenting the conservative vote and handing Labor an edge.
Coalition Splits Again Amid Leadership Turmoil as One Nation Surges in Polls:
The Coalition’s latest fracture erupted on January 22, 2026-a national day of mourning for the Bondi victims-when Nationals leader David Littleproud announced his party’s withdrawal from the alliance. This followed a dispute over Labor’s hate speech reforms, which Liberals supported but three Nationals senators opposed, leading to their resignation from the shadow ministry. Littleproud declared the partnership “untenable,” citing irreconcilable differences under Ley’s leadership.
Speculation over Ley’s position intensified, with conservatives Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor eyeing a challenge. The pair met on January 29 but failed to agree on a unified bid. Hastie withdrew on January 30, citing insufficient support, leaving Taylor as the potential contender. Ley issued a one-week ultimatum to the Nationals to reunite before parliament’s February 3 sitting.
In the Nationals, Littleproud faces a spill on February 2 from MP Colin Boyce, who called the split “political suicide.” This marks the second Coalition breakup since May 2025, when Labor won a landslide.
Amid the chaos, One Nation’s support skyrocketed. A January 19-25 Roy Morgan poll showed it at 22.5%, tying the Coalition. YouGov (January 20-27) had One Nation at 25%, ahead by five points. DemosAU (January 13-21) recorded 24%, three points ahead. Newspoll and Guardian Essential both hit 22%.
Labor’s primary hovered at 30-31%, with a 54-56% two-party lead. Voters approved Albanese’s Bondi response by 36-55% in Essential, though some polls showed mixed views.
One Nation Capitalizes on Extremism Debate and Coalition Divisions to Surge Ahead:
One Nation, founded by Hanson in 1997, has long appealed to voters disillusioned with mainstream parties on issues like immigration, globalization, and cultural identity. Its vote peaked at 8.4% federally in 1998 but fell to 6.4% in 2025, winning no lower house seats. The surge follows the Bondi attack, where two shooters killed 15 at a Hanukkah event, inspired by Islamic State. Authorities ruled out a broader cell, but it fueled debates on extremism, guns, and hate speech.
Labor responded with reforms passed January 20: anti-hate speech laws criminalizing incitement (up to five years jail) and gun controls, including buybacks and stricter checks. A royal commission was called amid calls from ex-Labor MPs for a federal probe into antisemitism. The Coalition’s split stemmed from Nationals rejecting hate speech provisions, fearing free speech curbs.
This mirrors past Coalition tensions, like the 2018 spill ousting Malcolm Turnbull. One Nation’s rise taps into economic pressures-an aging population, post-pandemic costs, and migration debates-eroding Coalition support in rural and outer-suburban seats. Projections suggest One Nation could win 29-36 seats if trends hold, potentially becoming official opposition.