Oil prices rose modestly on Feb. 13, 2026, as US inflation cooled to 2.4%, sparking rate-cut hopes that trumped OPEC+ plans for more output amid global supply worries.
Oil Prices Juggle Inflation Relief and OPEC Supply Risk:
Oil benchmarks edged up, buoyed by unexpectedly mild US inflation figures that raised expectations for lower interest rates and stronger economic growth. Yet, the gains were modest, tempered by reports that OPEC+ is poised to restart production hikes, potentially flooding the market. In a world still reeling from geopolitical flare-ups and uneven recovery, this tug-of-war underscores the fragility of energy prices-and their ripple effects on consumers, industries, and global stability.
CPI Boost Sends Oil Up Before OPEC+ Data Hits:
The day started with anticipation as traders awaited the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January Consumer Price Index report, released at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 13. The data revealed a 0.2% monthly increase in consumer prices-below the forecasted 0.3%-and a year-over-year rise of 2.4%, down from 2.7% in December 2025. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, hit 2.5% annually, its lowest since March 2021.
Markets reacted swiftly. Oil futures, which had dipped earlier on OPEC+ news, reversed course. Brent crude futures settled 23 cents higher at $67.75 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude added 5 cents to close at $62.89. The uptick reflected investor bets that cooling inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates sooner, stimulating economic activity and oil demand.
But the rally was short-lived and shallow. Earlier in the session, prices fell on a Reuters exclusive reporting that OPEC+ is inclined to resume phased output increases from April. The cartel, which controls about half of global oil supply, had paused hikes for January through March due to weak seasonal demand. Now, with summer driving season approaching, members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are eager to pump more.
US crude inventories swelled by 8.53 million barrels last week, per Energy Information Administration data, marking the largest build since January 2025. Baker Hughes reported US oil rigs dropping by three to 409, signaling potential future output curbs. Meanwhile, easing US sanctions on Venezuela opened doors for international firms to invest, potentially adding more barrels to the glut.
2026 Oil at Crossroads: Slowing Demand, Surging Supply:
This episode fits into a broader 2026 narrative of oil market recalibration. After OPEC+ boosted quotas by 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) from April to December 2025-about 3% of global demand-the group hit pause amid sluggish consumption. Global oil demand growth is now projected at 850,000 bpd for 2026 by the International Energy Agency (IEA), up from 770,000 bpd in 2025, but slower than initial hopes due to high prices and economic headwinds.
Supply-side pressures abound. The IEA forecasts world oil production rising 2.4 million bpd to 108.6 million bpd this year, implying surpluses. OPEC’s own outlook is rosier, seeing demand 600,000 bpd above 2025 levels, but even it acknowledges a second-quarter dip in call for its crude.
US-Iran tensions escalated with the Pentagon deploying an aircraft carrier to the Middle East, baking in a $5 to $7 per barrel risk premium, per analysts. New US sanctions on Venezuela earlier this year had crimped supply, but recent relaxations could reverse that. Historical parallels include the 2022-2023 price spikes from Russia’s Ukraine invasion, which pushed Brent above $100; today’s levels, around $68, reflect a post-pandemic normalization but remain sensitive to disruptions.
Oil prices influence everything from gas pump costs-averaging $3.20 per gallon nationally-to inflation trajectories. For consumers, higher energy bills erode purchasing power; for industries like airlines and manufacturing, they squeeze margins. Globally, OPEC+’s moves could strain relations with major importers like the US and China, while accelerating the shift to renewables amid climate goals.