New Lancet study estimates 75,200 violent deaths in Gaza’s first 16 months of war, 25,000 more than official counts, amid calls for accountability.
Gaza War’s Hidden Toll: 75,200 Lives Lost Beyond Official Counts:
A landmark study published in The Lancet Global Health has estimated that 75,200 Palestinians died violently in Gaza during the first 16 months of the Israel-Hamas war, from October 7, 2023, to January 5, 2025-roughly 25,000 more than the 49,090 violent deaths officially reported by Gaza’s Ministry of Health at that time. This figure represents approximately 3.4% of Gaza’s pre-war population lost to direct violence alone, not counting thousands more who perished from disease, starvation, and lack of medical care. Conducted through rigorous household surveys in the midst of war, the research reveals severe gaps in official reporting caused by destroyed hospitals, inaccessible zones, and unrecovered bodies. The findings arrive as a fragile ceasefire holds into its fifth month, intensifying global demands for accountability and exposing the scale of human loss that official numbers have failed to fully capture.
Gaza Survey Reveals High Death Toll and Humanitarian Crisis:
The Gaza Mortality Survey was carried out between late December 2024 and early January 2025, even as fighting continued in parts of the territory. Researchers interviewed 2,000 households across accessible districts in Khan Younis and Deir al-Balah, representing displaced populations from northern Gaza and Rafah. Using stratified cluster sampling and statistical adjustments to match pre-war demographics, the team documented the fate of nearly 10,000 individuals. The results showed a crude violent death rate of 33.1 per 1,000 people per year-among the highest recorded in modern conflicts. Of the estimated 75,200 violent deaths, more than 42,000 were women, children under 18, or elderly over 64. An additional 16,300 non-violent deaths were recorded, over half of which were considered excess compared to normal peacetime levels, largely due to famine, untreated illness, and collapsed healthcare.
By January 2025, Gaza’s Ministry of Health had documented 49,090 violent deaths, meaning the study identified a 35% undercount. The gap is attributed to bodies buried under rubble, families unable to reach hospitals, and entire neighborhoods cut off from record-keeping. After the survey period ended, conditions deteriorated further: famine spread across Gaza City by mid-2025, and sporadic violence persisted despite a late-October 2025 ceasefire. By February 2026, the Ministry’s cumulative death toll had risen to over 72,000, including hundreds killed since the truce began. Thousands more remain missing, many presumed dead beneath collapsed buildings.
Gaza Conflict: Death Toll, Humanitarian Crisis, and Accountability:
The Israel-Hamas war erupted on October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 and taking over 250 hostages, per Israeli figures. Israel’s retaliatory invasion aimed to dismantle Hamas but led to widespread destruction: over 80% of Gaza’s buildings damaged or destroyed, displacing nearly the entire 2.3 million population. The conflict, the deadliest in Gaza’s history, has drawn genocide accusations against Israel at the ICJ, with South Africa leading the case since December 2023.
Previous estimates varied widely. A July 2024 Lancet correspondence projected up to 186,000 total deaths, including indirect ones, based on ratios from other wars. But this new study focuses on verified violent deaths, challenging assumptions of high indirect-to-direct ratios-it found excess non-violent deaths did not exceed violent ones. Gaza’s health system, run by the Hamas-controlled MoH but deemed reliable by the UN and WHO, collapsed under bombardment, contributing to underreporting.
The war’s toll extends beyond deaths: over 100,000 injured, chronic famine, and a humanitarian blockade that drew international condemnation. By early 2026, reconstruction efforts stall amid political deadlock, with Gaza’s economy in ruins and aid flows erratic. This study underscores why accurate counting matters-for justice, reparations, and preventing future atrocities in protracted conflicts.