Senator, son of imprisoned former president, edges out incumbent Lula da Silva; second round set for 25 October.
Brazil’s presidential election will be decided in a runoff on 25 October after right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of voting on Sunday, 4 October 2026.
With nearly all ballots counted, Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) secured approximately 47 percent of the valid votes, or more than 56 million ballots. Lula, of the left-leaning Workers’ Party (PT), received about 45 percent, or roughly 53.8 million votes. Neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory, according to results from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
The outcome defied the majority of pre-election opinion polls, which had consistently projected Lula holding a narrow lead in the first round. Other candidates trailed far behind, with writer Augusto Cury (Avante) in third place at under 3 percent, followed by Renan Santos (Missão) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD).
Brazil Runoff Set as Bolsonaro and Lula Advance:
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a military coup after his narrow defeat by Lula in the 2022 election. The younger Bolsonaro has positioned himself as the standard-bearer of the conservative movement, promising continuity with his father’s agenda and, if elected, amnesty for his father and supporters involved in the January 2023 attacks on government buildings in Brasília.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. The veteran leftist leader has campaigned on his record of social programmes, economic recovery and environmental policies, while warning against a return to what he describes as the polarisation and institutional challenges of the previous Bolsonaro administration.
The first-round results largely mirrored the regional divides seen in 2022. Flávio Bolsonaro led in 15 states, dominating the South, Southeast and Centre-West, including the major electoral colleges of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais. Lula prevailed in all nine northeastern states-his traditional stronghold-and in several northern states.
Voter turnout stood at approximately 79 percent of the more than 158 million registered electors, with abstention around 21 percent. Right-wing parties, led by the PL, also performed strongly in concurrent races for Congress and state governorships, consolidating their presence in both chambers of the legislature.
Brazil Heads to Final Vote:
The three-week campaign leading to the 25 October runoff is expected to focus on mobilising moderate and undecided voters, as well as those who backed eliminated candidates. Some analysts note that the first-round result gives Bolsonaro momentum, while Lula retains a resilient base and a history of strong second-round performances.
Flávio Bolsonaro celebrated the outcome, declaring that Brazilians had demonstrated a desire for change and describing the result as signalling “the end of the PT era.” Lula’s camp has indicated it will intensify outreach in the coming weeks.
The contest unfolds against a backdrop of deep political polarisation that has marked Brazilian politics since the 2018 election of Jair Bolsonaro and the subsequent 2022 transition. Both sides have framed the runoff as a choice between competing visions for the country’s democratic institutions, economy and place in the world.