Independent Michelle Milthorpe vows to finish what she started in a by-election that could redraw the map for regional politics and deliver an early verdict on the new Liberal leader.
Farrer By-Election: Angus Taylor Faces Tough Test:
The sprawling electorate of Farrer in southern New South Wales is no longer the political fortress it once was. With Sussan Ley’s abrupt exit from parliament following her ousting as Liberal leader, a by-election now looms that pits a battle-hardened community independent against a fractured Coalition-and hands Angus Taylor his first real test as opposition leader.
Michelle Milthorpe, the teacher and advocate who slashed Ley’s margin to a historic low in last year’s federal election, has wasted no time declaring her candidacy. “Farrer’s future cannot be an afterthought to party politics,” she said, framing the contest as a chance for voters to demand genuine local representation over Canberra’s internal dramas.
The timing is brutal for the Liberals. Just days after Taylor defeated Ley 34-17 in a party room spill, the former leader announced she would step away “completely and comprehensively from public life.” Her farewell tour is wrapping up, and the writs for the by-election will soon follow.
For Taylor, the stakes could hardly be higher. He has described the contest as “tough” and acknowledged a “loss of confidence” in the Liberal Party that must be restored. A strong independent showing-or worse, a win-would amplify questions about whether his more conservative pitch is the right medicine for a party still reeling from its 2025 election defeat.
Michelle Milthorpe: Local Advocate Shakes Up Farrer Politics:
Michelle Milthorpe is no political novice. A local from the Albury-Jindera area, she has worked as a teacher, coach, small business owner and fierce advocate for child sexual assault survivors and legal reform. In the 2025 election, she ran under the Voices of Farrer banner-now rebranded as We Are Farrer-and delivered a result that shocked the political establishment.
Milthorpe captured nearly 20% of the primary vote, winning every polling booth in Albury, the electorate’s largest centre and the birthplace of the Liberal Party. After preferences, she pushed Ley to a two-candidate-preferred margin of just 6.2%-the narrowest in the seat’s modern history. She has kept the momentum going, maintaining a visible presence in the community ever since.
Her platform is unapologetically regional: cost-of-living relief, better healthcare access (including the long-stalled Albury-Wodonga hospital redevelopment), reliable telecommunications, water security, aged care and a practical approach to energy transition that delivers benefits to local communities rather than imposing costs.
“Farrer deserves federal representation that puts our needs before party politics,” Milthorpe said in her announcement. She has secured backing from Climate 200 and local groups, and is positioning herself as the candidate who listens rather than lectures from afar.
Farrer By-Election: Fragmented Right Opens Door for Milthorpe:
The by-election is shaping up as a four-way (or five-way) scrap that exposes the Coalition’s vulnerabilities.The Nationals have confirmed they will contest the seat, ending a long-standing agreement not to run against a sitting Liberal. One Nation, riding high in national polls, has also thrown its hat in the ring, with leader Pauline Hanson declaring the party will fight hard. Labor is widely expected to sit this one out or run a token campaign, preferring to watch the conservatives tear each other apart.
This fragmentation of the right-wing vote is exactly what independents like Milthorpe thrive on. In 2025, preferences from minor parties and Labor helped her close the gap dramatically. A repeat-or improvement-in 2026 could see her overtake the Liberals on primaries or in the final count.
Political analysts are watching closely. Antony Green has described the contest as potentially “messy,” while others note parallels to the rise of independents in nearby Indi and the teal wave in urban seats. A Milthorpe victory would make her the first community independent to claim a traditionally safe rural Liberal seat, sending shockwaves through both major parties.